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The Learning Curve Or The Cumulative Average Model

# What is Wright’s Law?

Pioneered by Theodore Wright in 1936, Wright’s Law aims to provide a reliable framework for forecasting cost declines as a function of cumulative production. Specifically, it states that for every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage.

## Theodore Paul Wright

(May 25, 1895 – August 21, 1970)

Theodore Paul Wright, also known as T. P. Wright, was a U.S. aeronautical engineer and educator. His career spanned numerous positions, including Naval Aircraft Inspector, Executive Engineer at the Curtiss Aeroplane Company, Chief Engineer of the Curtiss-Wright Corporation. He was a member of the National Defense Advisory Committee under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Assistant Chief of the Aircraft Section in the Office of Production Management, Chairman of the Joint Aircraft Committee, Director of the Aircraft Resources Control Office and a member of the War Production Board.

While studying airplane manufacturing, Wright determined that for every doubling of airplane production the labor requirement was reduced by 10-15%. In 1936, he detailed his full findings in the paper “Factors Affecting the Costs of Airplanes.” Now known as “Wright’s Law”, or experience curve effects, the paper described that “we learn by doing” and that the cost of each unit produced decreases as a function of the cumulative number of units produced.

With his extensive knowledge, Wright played a key role in expanding U.S. aircraft production, especially in developing essential statistical tools that provided accurate information on industrial capacity and measured worker efficiency.

## Wright’s Law Formula

Y = cumulative average time (or cost) per unit
X = cumulative number of units produced
a = time (or cost) required to produce 1st unit
b = slope of the function

## What is the difference between Wright’s Law and Moore’s Law?

Moore’s Law – named after Gordon Moore for his work in 1965 – focuses on cost as a function of time. Specifically, it states that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years. Wright’s Law on the other hand forecasts cost as a function of units produced.

Measured over the decade to 2015, ARK found that a price forecast based on Wright’s Law was 40% more accurate than one based on Moore’s Law.